Bill brief/S1378/119th Congress
NOAA gets $205M to build AI-powered weather and wildfire forecasts
Official title
TAME Extreme Weather and Wildfires Act
This bill directs the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to use artificial intelligence (AI) more widely in weather, water, space weather, and wildfire forecasting. It sets up new AI-based models, data tools, partnerships, and public data access, while allowing limits to protect national security and intellectual property. The bill authorizes funding for these activities from 2026 through 2030 and has been reported out of a Senate committee with amendments.
Bill
S1378
Introduced
Apr 9, 2025
Sponsor
Sponsor not listed
Chamber
Senate
What the bill does
What this bill does
The bill tells NOAA’s Under Secretary to build large, high‑quality training datasets using weather and Earth system data so AI systems can better predict weather, water, space weather, and wildfire conditions. NOAA must draw on existing federal datasets where possible and continue to support traditional observations and numerical (math-based) weather models, not replace them. The agency may develop global, regional, and local AI weather models and study how well they work, including how to describe uncertainty and risk to the public.
NOAA must explore advanced AI uses, such as improving how data are brought into models, better linking different Earth systems, and improving wildfire readiness and firefighter and community safety. The Under Secretary must provide technical help and data access to forecasters, scientists, engineers, and emergency managers so they can test and use AI and numerical models together. NOAA will help create a common framework to compare AI models and traditional models and may ask the National Academy of Sciences or another body to study how AI models affect the broader “weather enterprise.
” The bill lets NOAA form new kinds of partnerships with private companies, universities, and international groups to develop and move AI forecasting tools into operations, including co‑investment and shared intellectual property. NOAA must create a plan to share, at no cost and subject to law, its operational and experimental AI weather models, documentation, and related federal data, while allowing limits to protect national security, trade secrets, intellectual property, and mission needs. The Under Secretary must also report to Congress on risks from foreign “countries of concern” gaining access to U. S.
weather data. The bill allows flexible strategies to hire and keep expert staff and authorizes specific funding levels for 2026–2030.
Key provisions
- NOAA must build and maintain large AI training datasets from Earth system data, with quality controls and clear metadata.
- NOAA will develop and test AI weather models at global, regional, and local scales while continuing to improve traditional math-based forecasting.
- The agency must study and improve how it explains forecast uncertainty and environmental risk to the public.
- NOAA must send progress reports to Congress every two years on its AI forecasting work through 2035.
- Forecasters, researchers, and emergency managers must get technical help and data access to test and use NOAA's AI and traditional models, including through National Weather Service testbeds.
- NOAA must help create a common framework for comparing AI weather models against traditional models using past observational data.
- NOAA can build partnerships and co-investment deals with private companies, universities, and international groups, including sharing intellectual property from joint research.
- NOAA must develop a plan to release its AI weather models, documentation, and related government data to the public for free, with exceptions for national security, intellectual property, contracts, and mission needs.
- A classified and unclassified report to Congress is required within one year on the risks of foreign adversaries accessing U.S. weather data, including espionage and IP theft.
- The bill authorizes $105 million for fiscal year 2026 and $25 million per year for fiscal years 2027 through 2030.
Impact
Why it matters—and who it affects
Why it matters
More accurate and timely forecasts can help communities, businesses, and governments prepare for extreme weather, floods, wildfires, and space weather events that can affect power grids and communications. Using AI with large datasets could change how fast and how far ahead NOAA can predict these events, but how much forecasts will improve is not yet clear and will depend on how the models perform. The bill could affect many groups: NOAA scientists and staff, academic and private weather companies, emergency managers, firefighters, and people who rely on forecasts for safety and planning. It also touches on important issues such as open access to government data, protection of national and economic security from foreign actors, and competition for technical talent between the federal government and the private sector.
Who it affects
This bill touches everyone who depends on weather forecasts, from everyday families checking the forecast to emergency managers preparing for disasters. It directly affects NOAA scientists and staff, private weather companies, university researchers, firefighters, and local emergency responders.
The debate
The case for it—and the concerns
These are the main arguments surrounding the bill, not Modern Action’s position.
Arguments in support
- AI-enhanced forecasting tools could increase the accuracy and lead time of warnings for hurricanes, floods, wildfires, and other hazards, which may help reduce loss of life and property.
- Creating shared datasets, models, and best practices can support innovation across universities, private weather firms, and government, potentially making U.S. forecasting more competitive globally.
- Formal partnerships and co‑investment mechanisms may stretch federal dollars by leveraging private and academic resources and expertise.
- Requiring continued support for traditional observations and numerical models may ensure that AI complements, rather than replaces, proven forecasting methods.
- The national-security review of foreign access to weather data and authority to withhold sensitive models or data may help protect U.S. economic and security interests.
- Flexible hiring and retention tools could help NOAA attract and keep the specialized AI and data-science talent needed to operate advanced forecasting systems.
Concerns and tradeoffs
- The authorized spending levels may be viewed as too high relative to uncertain gains in forecast skill from AI models.
- Opening broad public access to AI models and datasets, even with safeguards, could still pose risks of misuse or unintentional sharing of valuable intellectual property.
- Increased reliance on AI systems may raise concerns about transparency, explainability, and how much human forecasters can check or challenge model outputs.
- Complex co‑investment and intellectual-property sharing arrangements with private and international partners might create conflicts over ownership, access, or commercialization of results.
- Efforts to offer more competitive pay and special hiring paths could be seen as creating disparities within the federal workforce or diverting resources from other NOAA missions.
- The bill does not create a stand‑alone new agency; it works mainly through NOAA’s existing leadership and structures, especially the National Weather Service and research testbeds.
- While it emphasizes AI and data sharing, it also explicitly protects NOAA’s authority to withhold models or data when needed for national security or because of contracts and IP limits, which could narrow actual public access.
- The required risk report on foreign access to weather data could lead to later policy changes that tighten who can use certain U.S. weather datasets, even outside the AI context.
Check the details
Key facts
- Requires NOAA’s Under Secretary to create and maintain comprehensive AI training datasets for weather forecasting using Earth system data, with quality controls and metadata.
- Directs NOAA to develop and test AI-based global, regional, and local weather models and to continue advancing traditional numerical models and basic Earth system research.
- Instructs NOAA to study and improve how it communicates forecast uncertainty and environmental risk to the public.
- Requires biennial reports to key congressional committees on NOAA’s AI forecasting activities through 2035.
- Mandates technical assistance and data access for forecasters, researchers, and emergency managers to evaluate and use NOAA’s AI and numerical models, including through National Weather Service testbeds.
- Calls for a common framework to assess and compare AI weather models and numerical models using past observational data.
- Authorizes NOAA to build partnerships and co‑investment arrangements with private, academic, and international entities, including sharing intellectual property from joint research.
- Requires NOAA to develop a plan to release AI weather models, documentation, and associated federal data to the public at no cost, with safeguards for national security, intellectual property, contracts, and NOAA’s life‑ and property‑protection mission.
Legislative record
How far the bill has moved
Awaiting Senate floor consideration
Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 199. · Oct 21, 2025
- Introduced
- Senate Committee
- 3Senate Floor Vote
- 4Passed Senate
- 5House Review
- 6Passed Both Chambers
- 7Signed into Law
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